If you have any economist friends, try to be extra cheerful around them this holiday season. The economic outlook from most forecasters is pretty depressing. The government recently revised third-quarter GDP growth lower to -0.5%. The consensus among Wall Street economists is that fourth-quarter GDP growth will come in at -4%. That's some of the slowest economic growth in decades.

The major problem is that consumers are cutting back on their spending. And since consumers account for 70% of overall economic activity, if consumers are in a bad mood, the economy is going to have a tough time.

Despite all the negative news, there is a silver lining: Gasoline prices have fallen dramatically. This is the equivalent of a $200 billion stimulus plan from Capitol Hill, except it got here without any of the political wrangling. Most importantly, it's free.

OPEC is clearly in a tough place. The cartel already cut production once, and today it announced that it will put off another decision to cut production for two weeks. Bloomberg writes:

OPEC postponed a decision until Dec. 17 while it gauges the impact of a 1.5-million barrel reduction agreed in October. The group will definitely trim output at its next meeting, its secretary general said today. Slowing global growth means demand will be "much lower" than expected a month ago, OPEC said in a statement after the meeting.

"OPEC is not finding buyers for its oil and the economic slowdown is both deeper and more widespread than any of us feared," said Robert Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. OPEC "may well observe in horror as prices fall significantly in coming days."

The lower gas prices are most likely a key factor that caused early holiday sales to be better-than-expected. We're also coming off some of the worst numbers in years for consumer confidence. This tells me that there's probably a lot of pent-up demand. The Wall Street Journal writes this morning:

The holiday shopping season got off to a better-than-expected start, as retailers reeled in cautious shoppers with massive discounts like "buy one get one free" sweaters at Gap Inc. stores, $200 iPod Touch music players from Amazon.com Inc., and 26-inch LCD TVs at Target Corp. sites for $299.

In a survey of 3,370 shoppers, the National Retail Federation estimated shoppers spent an average of $372.57 over the weekend, up 7.2% over last year's $347.55.

So consumers are buying, as long as they can get a good deal. That's good news from many stocks I recommend that cater to price-conscious shoppers like Wal-Mart (WMT) and McDonald's (MCD).