There are big headlines today about oil plunging to a 5-month low, losing more than $6 a barrel. Some news outlets are hyping an even bigger number, pointing to the $10 drop from the weekend high to an intraday low. Both these numbers lack an important element that is crucial to investing in this market: Perspective.
Sure, it's a 5-month low. But does anyone want to guess what the average price of oil was in 2007? About $65. Even if crude oil prices close out the year at today's level, they'll be 70% higher than last year. That's much better than if oil was still pushing $150 a barrel, but it's certainly not anything to throw a party about.
All of my four newsletters are still heavily invested in commodities because I'm confident that oil will bounce back. The dollar will weaken again, people will turn up their thermostats in the coming weeks to create a spike in demand, and crude oil will rebound.
One last note: The big sell-off today was because Gustav turned out to be not so bad a storm after all. But what about the two other storms swirling in the tropics right now? Those don't bother anyone? I'm sure we'll see a spike in prices as Hanna and Ike near shore, and another big selloff if they fail to create havoc. It's just the nature of the futures market during hurricane season.
Trust me, oil prices will bounce back from this big selloff today. Expensive crude oil is a reality, and this was just a temporary fluctuation. Don't place too much stock in the day-to-day gyrations of crude oil. You'll just get a heart attack! Commodity-related stocks like oil service or natural gas companies are still the best bet over the long term.





