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Stay Away from Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported earnings today of just over $2 billion which was more than Wall Street was expecting. Despite the good news, I still don't favor owning the shares. The financial mess isn't over just yet.

Goldman's profit last quarter was 10% lower than the year before. This was still a big improvement from the first quarter when Goldman's profit was cut in half. I give the company a lot of credit for managing its way through this crisis better than most on Wall Street.

Goldman's stock is down about 19 percent from a year ago, but that drop is small in comparison to the bank's peers. Lehman's stock is down 66 percent, Merrill Lynch has dropped 56 and Morgan Stanley's by 39 percent since last June. Citigroup, a commercial bank, has seen its stock fall 62 percent. And Goldman's competitors have raised new capital, diluting the value of their shares.

One question on analysts' minds is whether Goldman could be at risk if the commodities business flounders. Investors like George Soros are calling the commodities boom a bubble, and new regulations about speculation could cause a pullback in trading. Goldman does not break out its commodities trading revenue but said in March that the amount it could lose in a single day by trading commodities had increased to $38 million from $26 million in the fourth quarter last year.

I currently rate Goldman Sachs a "C - Hold" on my PortfolioGrader Pro stock-rating website.