European Gloom Grows as the Euro Soars
Soaring inflation in the 13-nation euro-zone is creating painful new difficulties for the European Central Bank (ECB) as it fights to calm tensions in Europe's financial markets. Energy and food prices pushed November's inflation rate in Germany to its highest level since at least 1995. This poses a serious challenge to the ECB, which pledged to keep inflation "below but close" to 2%. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said earlier this month that the inflation "hump" was proving larger and longer-lasting than expected. However, the ECB's room for maneuvering on interest rates has been constrained by threats of growth from the strong euro and the global credit crisis.
The ECB's governing council will likely keep the ECB's main interest rate on hold at 4% when it meets this upcoming Thursday in Frankfurt. However, that does not mean the bank is inactive. On Thursday, the ECB announced that it will take the exceptional step of extending a regular money market operation in order to cover the Christmas holiday and year-end operations, when financial institutions will be under huge pressure to put their 2007 books in order. That ECB announcement followed a recent surge in one-month and three-month interest rates. In its statement, the ECB said that the amounts of additional emergency funds it injected into money markets would be aimed at keeping market interest rates in line with its main policy rate. One operation scheduled for December 19 would now mature January 4, 2008, while a separate operation scheduled for December 28 would allow "further liquidity demands to be satisfied." These are the latest in a series of moves to ensure that money markets will function normally and keep market rates low.
For further evidence of a looming slowdown in Europe, November's "economic sentiment" index, published by the European Commission, fell to its lowest level since March 2006. Although economic activity has generally remained robust in the 13-country euro region, Europe has fought against a currency headwind. The credit squeeze has also driven up financing costs for business and consumers, as well as creating additional uncertainty. Furthermore, the stronger euro has hit exporters, while higher inflation has reduced consumer spending power. (The strong euro is also sending well-off European shoppers on trans-Atlantic buying sprees in American stores.)
This same sense of creeping pessimism is also growing in Britain. On Thursday, the governor of The Bank of England, Mervyn King, told a parliamentary committee that there has been a softening of the global economy since last summer, with business confidence declining as the credit turmoil continues. King added that while the British economy is expected to slow, inflation remains a concern due to rising energy prices and the potential for higher pay awards as salaries for the new year are reviewed. Interestingly, King also said that retailers have told him over the last three weeks that there has been a significant softening in retail spending. The fact that many Britons are flocking to New York and other U.S. cities to do their holiday shopping (taking advantage of the weak U.S. dollar as well as savings on sales or VAT taxes) was not mentioned.
Germany is in a special kind of funk this week after a Bundesbank survey announced last week that German retail sales fell a stunning 4.4% in October compared to the same month a year ago and by 2.7% compared to just a month ago in September. These are the worst retail sales figures since January, when retail sales naturally declined due to a 3% Value Added Tax (VAT) increase. German consumers are worried about higher food and energy costs, which have driven German inflation to near a 14-year high. There is also a lot of concern that overall retail sales could fall by 2% in 2007 and that Christmas sales would be very disappointing. Once again, there was no mention of high-end German shoppers flocking to the U.S. for cheap holiday shopping, taking advantage of the weak U.S. dollar (strong euro) and no crippling 17% to 19% VAT taxes. *
* Typical European Value-Added Tax (VAT) rates are 16% in Spain, 17.5% in the U.K., 19% in Germany and the Netherlands, 19.6% in France, 20% in Italy or Austria, 21% in Belgium, Portugal or Ireland, 22% in Finland, and 25% in Denmark and Sweden. Despite a $1,000 airline ticket and $1,000 more in hotels, meals and other incidentals, European shoppers can save money on U.S. purchases of $10,000 or more.



