Under Bernanke, the Fed is trying to improve its transparency. Today was the first time the Fed issued economic projections for the next three years instead of two. The Fed will also start issuing its forecasts four times a year instead of just twice. Here's part of Bloomberg's report on today's forecast:

Federal Reserve policy makers lowered their growth forecast in October and expressed concern about credit-market losses, even as they described the interest- rate cut as a "close call."

"Most members saw substantial downside risks to the economic outlook and judged that a rate reduction at this meeting would provide valuable additional insurance against an unexpectedly severe weakening in economic activity," according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's Oct. 30-31 meeting. "Many members noted that this policy decision was a close call."

Records of the gathering, which buttressed speculation that the Fed will reduce borrowing costs again next month, were accompanied by estimates and phrases that highlighted risks to growth. The language contrasted with the October statement, which said the dangers of a slower expansion and faster inflation were "roughly" equal.

"This does not sound like a close call to us, more of a no-brainer," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. "We can be pretty sure that if the outlook continues to deteriorate and markets remained distressed, they'll be easing again soon enough."

Federal funds futures quoted on the Chicago Board of Trade at 3:15 p.m. in New York indicated a 90 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut on Dec. 11, and 67 percent odds of a further move on Jan. 30. The 10-year Treasury note yielded 4.09 percent, from 4.07 percent late yesterday, while the dollar remained lower.

Cooling Expansion

FOMC members predicted growth could slow next year to as low as 1.8 percent, according to the middle range of forecasts. The numbers are "notably below" the 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent anticipated in June, the Fed said.

Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, will be 1.7 percent to 1.9 percent, down from 1.75 percent to 2 percent.

"Most participants judged that the uncertainty attending their October projections for real gross domestic product growth was above typical levels seen in the past," the Fed said. "In contrast, the uncertainty attached to participants' inflation projections was generally viewed as being broadly in line with past experience."