I'm often asked how well the economy is doing. Nowadays, it depends on who you ask. If you talk with a banker or homebuilder, then you'll probably get a negative answer. But if you talk with a farmer or a manufacturer who has a strong foreign business, then you'll probably get a very positive answer. The different views are a result of the weak dollar which is helping fuel an export boom.

There are also divergent views on economy from business and consumers. Consumer spending is still quite healthy, but spending by businesses is starting to look shaky.

The Commerce Department recently reported that real consumer spending increased by 0.6% in August, which was the fastest growth in two years. The spending party was helped by a 2.8% jump in vehicle sales as automakers went all out to move cars and trucks off their lots. So far, retailers have reported surprisingly strong back-to-school sales. For the third quarter, the economy probably grew about 2%. But retail sales were strong if September, the number could be as high as 3%.

Spending by businesses, however, is a very different story. The problem is that businesses appear to have been spooked by the credit crisis. Businesses recently curtailed their hiring plans which caused the first monthly contraction in payrolls in four years. Also, orders for durable goods plunged 4.9% in August.

On Friday the government will release its jobs report for September. This will give us our first glimpse of how much hiring the business sector did last month. Meanwhile, the Fed is carefully monitoring the situation and will likely cut interest rates either 25 basis points or 50 basis points at its next two meetings on October 30-31 and December 11.