Do you remember when the French bank BNP Paribas said that it could no longer assign a fair price to its troubled hedge funds? Since then, the European Central Bank (ECB) has pumped $300 billion in liquidity to help stabilize the banking industry in the euro-zone.
Well guess what? On Thursday, BNP Paribas announced that its executives have changed their minds! They're going to reopen these controversial funds, which are expected to be valued at 2% to 5% lower when trading resumes.
Wait a minute--does this mean that the whole panic and massive liquidity injection was over a measly 2% to 5% reduction in principal? Sheesh, high-yield bonds can lose that in a day, and central banks never intervene! I have a sneaky suspicion that some BNP Paribas executives wanted to go on vacation in August and just closed the redemption window.
I find it odd that as they now return from vacation the redemption window is suddenly being reopened. It's a simple fact that the markets tend to lose their liquidity in August because everyone goes on vacation. In retrospect, these gyrations in August were unquestionably due to these seasonal effects.
The fact that the U.S. dollar has been very resilient during the subprime crisis also seems a bit unusual. Didn't the subprime crisis originate in the U.S. due to aggressive mortgage lending? Or were U.S. banks smart enough to get other banks around the world to buy all this subprime paper?
During this month's credit crunch, the dollar emerged as an oasis, especially our Treasury bills, which benefited immensely during last week's flight to quality. Short-term Treasury yields just had their biggest drop in 19 years. As the yield on Treasury bills falls, it makes the stock market look even more undervalued, so last week's rebound, in my opinion, is definitely not a head fake but it's the "real deal." As trading volume picks up after Labor Day, I expect that institutional buying in my recommended stocks will become even stronger.



