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The Truth about the Economy

If you turn on CNBC they keep telling you how weak the economy is and how it continues to soften. The problem is that the folks on CNBC are Wall Street people who are stressed out about their shrinking year-end bonuses, their over-priced Manhattan real estate and generally outrageous cost of living.

Well guess what? The entire U.S. economy is not based solely in Manhattan!!

As soon as you head to the heartland, business is booming. Why the disparity? It's very simple. The weak dollar has fueled an export boom that's responsible for strong economic growth. Remember that the United States is the equivalent of Saudi Arabia for corn, coal and even high-grade iron ore.

Second-quarter GDP estimate will almost certainly be revised higher this week. The reason for the revision is due to June's surprisingly strong trade deficit, which narrowed by 1.7% due to soaring exports. Trade typically contributes about one-third of the economy's growth, but due to the housing market woes, trade now has a much larger role in the economy.

The fact that export growth dramatically outpaced imports in June is a sign of robust activity overseas. Obviously, this is a good sign for continued growth, which is why Treasury Secretary Paulson recently said, "this is the strongest global economy we've had." Adjusted for inflation, the June trade deficit was at its lowest level in almost three years.

So far the third quarter is also looking quite strong. The Commerce Department recently reported that orders for U.S.-made durable goods jumped 5.9% in July. Looking even further out, crude oil prices should continue to fall due to lower demand from seasonal pressures (the summer driving season is almost over), which should help the trade deficit shrink even further.