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My Outlook for the Economy

Most economists now estimate that the economy expanded at a 3% pace in Q2 after growing at a 2%, 2.5% and 0.7% annual pace in the previous three quarters. This is a major sentiment change and is largely caused by recent economic data indicating that the economy is breaking out of its slump.

Much of the economy's second-quarter resurgence is attributable to improving business spending and stronger export growth, which increased 2.2% in May to a record $132 billion.

The trade deficit was essentially unchanged from April, and a "flat" deficit, along with an upswing in exports, will add about 1% to Q2 GDP. By contrast, the trade deficit subtracted a percentage point in the first quarter, when GDP growth slowed to 0.7%.

Through the first five months of the year, the trade deficit ran about 3.4% lower than it was over the same period in 2006. Exports are up 6.9% this year, while imports are up 2.3%. On a yearly basis, exports have climbed almost three times faster than imports, with the biggest increase coming from capital goods, like civilian aircraft. Exports of industrial materials and consumer goods also set records in May.

Simply put, strong economic growth around the world continues to boost the earnings of many large-cap multinationals. These companies are also benefiting immensely from the weak dollar, which recently hit a new low against the euro. In fact, there's definitely a strong Wall Street perception that many U.S.-based companies that conduct their business abroad are benefiting from strong economic growth around the world.